Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.018819 0.021350 0.024102 0.027319 0.030977 0.035011 0.039798
2025-05-04 0.015077 0.018605 0.022782 0.028096 0.034689 0.042613 0.052881
2025-05-11 0.012622 0.016486 0.021329 0.027859 0.036454 0.047412 0.062495
2025-05-18 0.010996 0.015045 0.020362 0.027879 0.038266 0.052169 0.072284
2025-05-25 0.009614 0.013688 0.019261 0.027466 0.039293 0.055805 0.080752
2025-06-01 0.008762 0.012930 0.018841 0.027872 0.041393 0.061002 0.091816
2025-06-08 0.007891 0.012028 0.018091 0.027668 0.042511 0.064797 0.101095
2025-06-15 0.007409 0.011641 0.018036 0.028459 0.045145 0.071029 0.114633
2025-06-22 0.006588 0.010641 0.016938 0.027498 0.044913 0.072745 0.121104
2025-06-29 0.006008 0.009961 0.016267 0.027133 0.045563 0.075863 0.130087
2025-07-06 0.005390 0.009157 0.015316 0.026202 0.045160 0.077168 0.136058
2025-07-13 0.005192 0.009034 0.015473 0.027143 0.048003 0.084166 0.152557
2025-07-20 0.004949 0.008822 0.015472 0.027831 0.050507 0.090873 0.169353
2025-07-27 0.004746 0.008660 0.015543 0.028654 0.053334 0.098421 0.188494
2025-08-03 0.004402 0.008211 0.015060 0.028410 0.054152 0.102341 0.201103
2025-08-10 0.004130 0.007868 0.014738 0.028430 0.055456 0.107263 0.216113
2025-08-17 0.003826 0.007438 0.014213 0.028009 0.055853 0.110451 0.227933
2025-08-24 0.003652 0.007245 0.014122 0.028424 0.057935 0.117119 0.247523
2025-08-31 0.003421 0.006916 0.013739 0.028215 0.058724 0.121237 0.262130
2025-09-07 0.003320 0.006841 0.013849 0.029023 0.061686 0.130074 0.287765
2025-09-14 0.003041 0.006377 0.013136 0.028042 0.060760 0.130634 0.295161
2025-09-21 0.002847 0.006073 0.012725 0.027670 0.061108 0.133941 0.309047
2025-09-28 0.002614 0.005670 0.012076 0.026720 0.060095 0.134164 0.315818